You are playing one of the first $10,000 buy-in tournaments post-lockdown, and it’s the biggest tournament of the summer.

You build up a huge stack on day 1 — one of, if not the biggest in the field — only to run the best possible full house into a top pro’s quads on day 2.

Sounds unrealistic, doesn’t it? Well, it was an unfortunate reality for Bryn Kenney at the $10,000,000 GTD Wynn Millions versus Alex Foxen.

Let’s jump into the hand.

Background

Game: €10K $10,000,000 GTD Wynn Millions

Format: No Limit Hold ‘em

Blinds: 1,500/2,500

Ante: 2,500 BB ante

Stage: Level 12

Effective Stacks: ~100bb

Preflop

Bryn Kenney open-raised to an unknown size (we’ll assume 2.2bb for this article) with A Q. Alex Foxen calls from the Hijack with 3 3. The Button and Big Blind also call, making it four ways to the flop. 

Preflop analysis

With Ace-Queen offsuit, Bryn Kenney has a standard open.

Facing a raise with a small pocket pair, Alex Foxen has a standard call for several reasons:

• They are playing with deep stacks, which means he has more implied odds for when he hits a set.
• The presence of antes allows you to call more hands than you can in cash games.
• Pocket threes will play well if the pot goes multiway, which is fairly likely with 4 player behind.

Let’s see three!

Note: Want to know how to play every hand in every common preflop situation? Get instant access to extensive preflop charts and lessons (for cash games, heads-up and tournaments) when you join the Upswing Lab training course. Lock your seat now!

The Advanced Solver Ranges for cash games — one of five sets of preflop charts in the Upswing Lab.

Flop

Pot size: 10.3bb

Board: A A 3

Action: Big Blind checks. Kenney bets 3.6bb. Foxen calls. Button folds. Big Blind folds.

Flop analysis

Kenney has an easy c-bet with trips. He elects to bet small, about 1/3 of the pot, which is standard when c-betting out of position, especially in multiway pots.

Foxen’s decision to just call in position with his full house is perfect. Slow-playing ensures that all of Kenney’s bluffs remain in his range. If Kenney has a hand like QJ or a flush draw, for example, he may continue barreling depending on the turn card. Additionally, he is usually going to carry on betting his value hands on the turn (mostly Ax).

Turn

Pot size: 17.5bb

Board: (A A 3) 3

Action: Kenney bets 4bb. Foxen calls.

Turn analysis

Talk about an action card. The 3 gives Kenney a full house and Foxen quads.

Kenney chooses a really small bet size here on the turn with his full house, and it’s hard to say why. Perhaps he is trying to target the medium pocket pairs in Foxen’s range (44 through TT), which are in a somewhat tough spot versus this bet size. That said, solvers prefer a bigger bet size in this spot.

Foxen elects to call to continue setting the trap, which is certainly fine with quads. Raising to get value from Kenney’s Ace-X hands is also a fine play. Foxen really can’t go wrong — he’s in a dream spot.

River

Pot size: 25.5bb

Board: (A A 3 3) Q

Action: Kenney checks. Foxen overbets 44.8bb. Kenney re-raises all-in for 96bb Foxen calls.

River analysis

A gross river improves Kenney to the best possible full house, which is pipped by Foxen’s quads.

Kenney’s check on the river is a great play. Checking allows Foxen to bluff with his missed flush draws (which may or may not call on the turn) and perhaps hands like 44/55 — Foxen is certainly capable of turning made hands into bluffs. Foxen will also value bet most or all of his Ax hands, which he will have a tough time folding versus a check-raise all-in. 

Facing the check, Foxen (obviously) should bet for value with quads. The only question is: what size should he use to extract the most value possible?

Foxen’s big overbet (nearly 200% pot) makes a lot of sense. He is targeting all of Kenney’s Ace-X hands that will certainly call.

Back to Kenney, who thinks he is in a dream spot. He chooses to go all-in with his aces full of queens, trying to get called by Foxen’s inferior Ace-X hands. However, Foxen snap-calls and shows Kenney the bad news.

Results

Alex Foxen wins 217.5bb with quad threes and Kenney is eliminated from the tournament in a brutal cooler. That’s one way to go from big stack to out!

Foxen ended up finishing the tournament in 57th place for $46,406.

What do you think of this hand?

Let us know in the comments below.

If you want more hand analysis, check out 14 Players Away from €300,000 — Should He Hero Call This Hand?

That’s it for today. Take care!

Note: Ready to join 6,000+ players currently upgrading their No Limit Hold’em skills? Crush your competition with the expert strategies you will learn inside the Upswing Lab training course. Learn more now!

The post The Filthiest Hand from the $10,000,000 Wynn Millions (Analysis) appeared first on Upswing Poker.

By taking notes, you give yourself easily accessible information about how certain players approach the game.

This article will help you take better notes on your opponents, while also providing you with abbreviations that will allow you to do so quickly in-game.

Let’s dive in.

What Should We Look For When We Take Notes?

Let’s start with an overview of what we’re really looking for when we take notes.

Anytime you see a player make an abnormal play, consider taking a note of it. If you’re playing live or on a poker site without a note feature, you’ll have to make it a mental note, or perhaps use the notes app on your phone.

The most noteworthy plays are those that reveal a glaring deficiency in a player’s strategy. Some examples of this could be:

1. Someone calls a raise preflop and gets to showdown with an extremely weak hand.
2. Your opponent checks back a very strong hand on the river with which they should have bet for value.
3. A player bluffs a turn or river with no equity or range advantage.

The conclusions you can make about these three players are:

1. Someone that called a raise preflop with an extremely weak hand (like J 3) is ultra-loose preflop.
2. The player that checked back a very strong hand on the river is overly passive, perhaps scared money. Also, his river bets might be more polarized.
3. A player that attempts a wild, overly ambitious bluff is likely bluffing too often and you should call down lighter against her.

This is far from an exhaustive list, but I’m sure you can imagine many other plays that would be worthy of a note.

What to Avoid When Taking Notes

Don’t take notes that will more than likely be ambiguous to your future self. As good as it may feel to write “idiot” or “donkey” in your opponent’s note box, such a note is quite unlikely to serve you well in the future.

Instead, take note of specific hands played by your opponent that demonstrate why he is, for example, an “idiot” or a “donkey.” That way you can come up with more precise counter-strategies when you play against them in the future.

Now you know what to look for and what to avoid when taking notes. Let’s move on talk about learn some shorthand abbreviations that will save you time when notetaking so you can spend more time focusing on the game.

Positional Abbreviations

Before diving into more complicated abbreviations, we’ll start with something simple: position abbreviations.

There are the 9 positions in poker (6-max players can ignore the first three and start at Lojack).

The nine positions in Texas Hold’em game.

And this is how they can be written as abbreviations:

UTG: Under the Gun
UTG1: Under the Gun +1
UTG2: Under the Gun +2
LJ or MP1: Lojack
HJ or MP2: Hijack
CO: Cutoff
BTN or BU: Button
SB: Small Blind
BB: Big Blind

Whenever you note a hand, start by noting which position that the player was in. This is one of the most key components of any note because position has such a massive impact on the optimal strategy in a given situation.

For example, suppose you see a player raise K 9 from Under the Gun. You can safely assume that this player raises way too wide from the early positions, and you can take note of this in a matter of seconds with the short-hand:

opened k9o utg

Now you know the positional abbreviations, so let’s move on to more complex abbreviations that show how a player played an entire hand.

Action Abbreviations

Here is a fairly comprehensive list of short-hands for different actions:

Pro Tip: Make a copy of the following list and keep it with you when you play. Using these abbreviations will help you quickly discuss hands with other players which will help you improve much faster.

Big Blinds = bb
Check = X
Call = C 
Check Raise = x/r or XR
Check Call = x/c or XC
Check Back = x/b or XB
Continuation Bet = cbet
Cold Call = CC
3-bet = 3b
3-bet shove = 3bs
4-bet = 4b
4-bet shove = 4bs
5-bet shove = 5bs
Final Table/Final Two Tables = FT/F2T
Double/Triple Barrel = DUB/TRIB
Check to Showdown = XTSD or x down
Fold Equity = FE
Limp Call = l/c or LC
On the flop/turn/river = OTF/OTT/OTR
r at the end of a board = rainbow board (all different suits)
cc at the end of a board = two clubs are on the board
sss at the end of a board = three spades are on the board
x after a board or card = an irrelevant suit

Feel free to tweak these abbreviations to your preference or add your own.  

Now, let’s go over two example hands to cement the notetaking process in your mind.

Example #1

A player in the cutoff 3-bets all-in preflop for 40 big blinds with 44 after a player raised UTG. Here’s how we could quickly take this note:

CO 3bs 40bb with 44 vs UTG raise

Just like that, you’ve quickly made a note of an abnormal play, which you can now reference when making decisions against this player in the future.

Let’s do another that’s a little bit more complicated.

Example #2

A player raises from the Button with a 30bb stack and gets called by the player in the big blind. He c-bets for one 1/3rd pot on A T 3. He follows up with a half-pot bet on the J turn, then goes all-in on the 2 river. His opponent calls and he shows a bluff with Q 4.

This very noteworthy hand could be written quickly as:

BTN raise 30bb with Q4o TRIB AT3cc Jx 2x vs BB

Now you can quickly be reminded that this is a player worth calling down light.

A Quick Word About Live Poker Note Taking

The easiest way for live players to take notes on their opponents is using Notepad or a similar app on your phone. You could create a separate folder on your phone where you track unorthodox plays against the people that you most frequently play against.

Even though you won’t be able to access these notes during the middle of a hand, you can still study them when you’re away from the table or not in the current hand.

What is a Note-Worthy Play You’ve Seen at the Tables Recently?

Let me know in the comments.

I hope these note-taking strategies will help you out during your next session!

Thanks for reading.

The post How to Take Notes on Your Opponents Like a Pro appeared first on Upswing Poker.

These events attract the best of the best, all competing for millions of dollars and the prestige that comes with winning a high roller title.

This article will analyze a crucial hand from a recent online $25k High Roller event. I will run the hand through PioSolver on each street to supplement the analysis.

Let’s dive in.

Background

Game: $25,000 Partypoker.com WPT High Roller

Stage: 3 players left at the Final Table

Payouts:
1st $450,076.50
2nd $280,687.50
3rd $182,430.00

Stack Sizes:
Button (30.8bb): Benjamin “bencb789” Rolle
Small Blind (100bb): Michael “iamluckbox” Addamo
Big Blind (38.7bb): Jonathan “apestyles” Van Fleet

With that fat $98k pay jump and three of the best MTT players in the world battling it out, there is no shortage of drama surrounding this hand.

Preflop

Michael opens to 4bb from the Small Blind with 9 4. Jonathan defends his Big Blind with Q J.

Preflop analysis

Michael should open-raise a lot in the Small Blind given that he is the overwhelming chip leader and can effectively apply pressure on Jonathan due to ICM. Even a hand as weak as 9 4 is a winning open in these circumstances.

Jonathan makes a super standard call with Q J. He should not want to bloat the pot by 3-betting with too many hands here because busting before the shortest stack would be disastrous.

Note: Want to know how to play every hand in every common preflop situation? Get instant access to extensive preflop charts and lessons (for cash games, heads-up and tournaments) when you join the Upswing Lab training course. Lock your seat now!

The Advanced Solver Ranges for cash games — one of five sets of preflop charts in the Upswing Lab.

Flop

Pot size: 8.4bb

Board: T 6 4

Action: Michael checks. Jonathan bets 2.5bb. Michael calls.

Flop analysis

With 9 4, Michael has flopped bottom pair with backdoor flush and straight draws. This is a hand that can go either way in terms of betting or checking.

Jonathan’s small bet with Q J versus a check is pretty standard. He can profitably take a stab at the pot here with a bunch of straight draws, overcards and flush draws. This bet will fold out a ton of hands that have two live cards (9 3 type stuff). Plus, this specific combo will have a plethora of barreling opportunities on the many turns that give him a draw.

Now, let’s take a look at how the solver plays in this situation:

First, here is how the solver plays Michael’s 9 4 on T 6 4:

As you can see, 9 4 is played as a mix of checks and bets (44% of the time betting small and 37% of the time checking).

Now, let’s see what Jonathan should do when facing a check, according to the solver:

Jonathan’s Q J is betting at a 62% frequency for a small size (around 25% pot).

Finally, here is how the solver plays Michael’s bottom pair when faced with a bet:

His 9 4 is always continuing vs this bet, calling 84% of the time. Interestingly, the solver also likes check-raising this bottom pair 16% of the time.

Turn

Pot size: 13.4bb

Board: (T 6 4) 5

Action: Michael checks. Jonathan checks.

Turn Analysis

The turn 5 heavily benefits Michael’s range as the Small Blind. He has now made two pair or better with a number of hands in his range (T5, 65, 54, 55). Additionally, many of his flop floats will now have a draw, such as K Q or K 7.

Because this turn hits Michael’s range so well, it doesn’t make sense for Jonathan to barrel this card. If he did, he would be betting into a range that is just not folding often (which is what he wants to happen when holding a measly queen-high). He has also not picked up any additional equity, which is a key factor when deciding whether or not to barrel.

Let’s take a look at the solver’s solution for this street.

As you can see, Michael should always check to the bettor with 9 4:

And faced with the check, Jonathan should play a mixed strategy:

You can see that the solver chooses to bet just over 70% of the time with this hand, checking the remaining ~30% of the time. However, because of the heavy ICM considerations in this spot (for which the solver does not account), Jonathan may choose to check more frequently than he normally would with his Q J.

River

Pot size: 13.4bb

Board: (T 6 4 5) K

Action: Michael checks. Jonathan bets 11.8bb. Michael folds.

River Analysis

Once Michael checks on the river, he effectively caps his range. He will rarely have better than a weak one pair hand here, though it’s not impossible for him to have the occasional trap.

Jonathan’s large bet size is perfect because it puts a lot of pressure on most of Michael’s range. He also has the perfect hand with which to bluff because he blocks strong top pairs (KQ and KJ) and flushes with the J.

Let’s turn to the solver one last time. Here’s how it likes playing Jonathan’s hand when checked to:

What a surprise! Just like we assumed, the solved game tree loves betting big (~75% pot) with Jonathan’s exact hand.

Results

Jonathan bet the river and Michael elected to fold his pair of fours.

Conclusion

Both players played this hand well, with all of their decisions being “solver-approved.” I guess that’s to be expected when you’re analyzing the cream of the tournament crop.

Want more tournament hand analysis featuring top pros? Read $2 Million Up for Grabs — Can Dan Smith Get Fedor Holz to Fold?

Thanks for reading.

Note: Ready to join 6,000+ players currently upgrading their No Limit Hold’em skills? Crush your competition with the expert strategies you will learn inside the Upswing Lab training course. Learn more now!

The post Two Top Pros Play Perfectly with $450,076 on the Line (Hand Analysis) appeared first on Upswing Poker.

Mo after winning a 1k WPT side event

These two hands are straight from Mo’s last video series in the Upswing Lab training course, which is a 5-part review of hands from some of the biggest tournaments that exist online.

Let’s dive in.

Hand #1

Background

Format: 9-handed
Blinds: 3000/6000
Ante: 600
Stage: Mid-Game (Not in the money or near the bubble)

Stack Sizes:
Hero (Lojack) – 60bb
Big Blind – 67bb

The Hand

Preflop: Mo is dealt A Q in the Lojack.
3 folds. Mo raises to 2.14bb. 4 folds. Big Blind calls.

Flop (5.68bb): J T 8 
Big Blind bets 4bb. Mo calls.

Turn (13.68bb): 4
Big Blind bets 9bb. Mo calls.

River (31.68bb): 9
Big Blind checks. Mo bets 17.74bb.

Preflop Analysis

Mo has a standard open with Ace-Queen offsuit. Obviously, opening A Q when the action folds to you will be the correct play in almost every tournament situation.

Flop Analysis

With A Q on a J T 8, Mo flops a double gutter straight draw but faces an interesting spot. The Big Blind leads, which is unorthodox.

Facing the lead, Mo’s A Q is a clear call. If he were to have Ace-Queen with a club in it, he should bluff-raise at some frequency. This is because he could continue bluffing on runouts with a club in addition to hitting a straight on a 9 or King. This aggressive play would put his opponents’ weak 1 pair hands in a very tough spot.

Turn Analysis

The turn comes the 4 which changes nothing. Even vs. this 66% pot-sized double barrel, Mo cannot fold with two overcards and a double gutter straight draw. He can also be ahead if his opponent had a semi-bluffing hand like A9 or a flush draw.

Calling is Moritz’s only good option here. He wouldn’t credibly represent much by raising, and folding with this much equity would be a mistake.

River Analysis

Boom! Mo makes the second nut straight as the river comes the 9, making the final board J T 8 4 9 with 31.68bb in the pot.

Once the Big Blind checks, Mo has a clear value bet. The question is what size to use.

Given how the hand played out, the opponent’s range is mostly capped to one pair / two pair hands. Because of this, there is no reason to bet massive. Mo elects to go with a 56% pot, which makes a lot of sense.

Results

The big blind folds and Mo wins 31.68bb.

Note: Learn step-by-step how to become the best player at the table when you join the Upswing Lab training course. Elite pros have been adding new content every week for the past four years, and you get all of it when you join. Learn more now!

Hand #2

Background

Format: 6-handed
Blinds: 1500/3000
Ante: 375
Stage: Before the end of late registration

Stack Sizes:
Hero (Lojack) – 27.65bb
Cutoff – 44bb
Big Blind – 20bb

The Hand

Preflop: Mo is dealt K T in the Lojack
3 folds. Mo raises to 2.14bb. 1 fold. Cutoff calls. 2 folds. Big Blind calls.

Flop (7.67bb): T 8 5
Big Blind checks. Mo checks. Cutoff checks.

Turn (7.67bb): 3
Big Blind checks. Hero bets 4.3bb. Cutoff calls. Big Blind folds.

River (16.27bb): 4
Mo bets all-in 21.21bb. Cutoff calls.

Preflop Analysis

Mo has a standard open with K T in the Lojack.

Flop Analysis

The flop comes T 8 5 which gives Mo top pair with K T.

While he has a strong top pair, both the Cutoff and Big Blind can have pretty nutted hands on this board, or at least hands that have a lot of equity.

With his specific hand, Mo has a close decision between check and bet. If he decides to bet, his goal is to get value from one pair hands and draws while denying equity from hands KQ and low pairs.

As played, Mo decides to check this multiway with the plan of check-raising all-in should the Cutoff bet. This check-shove would be even better if the Big Blind calls the bet because it is essentially dead money in the pot. 

Why is the Big Blind’s call essentially dead money? Because if he had any strong value hands (like two pair) or high equity hands (like J 9) he is would likely raise those himself rather than just call the Cutoff’s bet.

Turn Analysis

The turn comes (T 8 5) 3 with 7.67bb in the pot.

Once the flush completes on the turn and Big Blind decides to check again, Mo has a clear value bet with top pair and has to decide what size to use.

The size Mo picks (around 56% pot) is perfect for getting called by weak one pair hands, as well as the majority of hands that have a diamond in them.

River Analysis

Once the river comes the (T 8 5 3) 4 and Mo has a decision to make. There’s 16.27bb in the pot and he has 21.21bb behind.

The final piece of the puzzle for this hand is whether to bet ourselves or check, hoping to induce a bluff.

If the river goes check-check, then Mo is virtually always going to win because the Cutoff doesn’t check back better hands than what Hero has on the flop. Now, we move onto what hands that Cutoff could bluff with on the river. The short answer is, not many.

By shoving himself, Mo allows the Cutoff to hero call with hands like Tx/8x with a diamond and underpairs with straight and flush blockers. Or he may even call lighter than that…

Results

Mo shows K T. Cutoff shows A Q. Mo wins 58.69bb.

Do You Have a Poker Hand You’d Like to See Reviewed on Upswing Poker?

Describe the hand in the comments below!

If you want more tournament content, check out How Would You Play Pocket Aces at This Final Table? (Analysis).

Note: Ready to join 6,000+ players currently upgrading their No Limit Hold’em skills? Crush your competition with the expert strategies you will learn inside the Upswing Lab training course. Learn more now!

The post Going for Value in Two High Stakes Tournament Hands (Analysis) appeared first on Upswing Poker.

You’ve got to know when to hold ’em, know when to fold ’em. Know when to walk away, and know when to run.

Today we are going to analyze a famous hand where the person in question (Mario Ho) didn’t know when to hold ’em. The hand sent shock waves around the poker world when it took place.

If you prefer watching to reading, Doug Polk analyzed the hand on his YouTube channel in an episode of Polker Hands (keep scrolling for a written recap and analysis):

Without further ado, let’s jump into the action.

The Tournament

The hand took place on Day 4 of the 2017 WSOP Europe Main Event. There were 21 players left, and everyone was already in the money. 

Payout structure

As can be seen here, the payout structure was weighted heavily towards the final table:

1st: €1,115,207
2nd: €689,246
3rd: €476,585
4th: €335,089
5th: €239,639
6th: €174,365
7th: €129,121
8th: €97,344
9th-10th: €74,737
11th-12th: €58,455
13th-14th: €46,594
15th-16th: €37,862
17th-21st: €31,337

Stack sizes:

Before getting into the hand, let’s take a look at the players’ stack sizes at the table (the players who reach the flop have been bolded):

95 big blinds – Rainer Kempe
78 big blinds – Zhang
65 big blinds – Niall Farrell
65 big blinds – Jonkers
58 big blinds – Maria Ho
53 big blinds – Kristen Bicknell
22 big blinds – Osinovski
14 big blinds – Langrock

Preflop

Kempe raises to 2.1bb with 9 9 from the Hijack. Bicknell calls with A J on the Button. Farrell 3-bets to 9.5bb with A K in the Small Blind. Maria Ho calls with T T in the Big Blind. Kempe calls, Bicknell calls.

Note: Want to know how to play every hand in every common preflop situation? Get instant access to extensive preflop charts and lessons (for cash games and tournaments) when you join the Upswing Lab training course. Lock your seat now!

The Advanced Tournament Ranges — one of five sets of preflop charts in the Upswing Lab.

Preflop Analysis

After a preflop open, a cold-call from the button, and a 3-bet from the Small Blind, Maria looks down at T T.

This puts her in a tough position because while Pocket Tens is a premium hand, she is up against a few strong ranges. In particular, a reasonable 3-bet range from the Small Blind should consist of mostly very strong hands. Here is an example of what that range could look like:

As you can see from the chart above, the Small Blind 3-betting range is going to generally consist of value, with a few bluffs mixed in. Even the bluffs will have a lot of equity versus calling ranges from from the other players.

Compiling all this information together, I would suggest playing a 4-bet or fold strategy in Ho’s spot.

Playing a strategy of only raises and folds here has several advantages:

• It simplifies the post-flop decision tree
• It avoids awkward spots playing out of position vs multiple opponents* 
• She is either going to make a certain amount of chips (if she 4bets all-in or a 0 amount of chips if she folds)

*When Maria cold calls preflop, it gives the preflop raiser and the button caller great odds to call, which does indeed happen.

By just calling, Maria opens herself up to being squeezed out of the pot should the original raiser or caller choose to go all-in.

If Maria was to 4-bet all-in and Farrell was to call, versus this range (minus the bluffs) above you can see from the equities below that she is a marginal underdog.

With all the dead money in the middle from the original raiser and the button call, this means it would be +EV. This is also discounting the times when Farrell folds and Maria picks up all the chips in the middle without having to see a flop.

Denying equity from Ax / KQ is also not the worst outcome for pocket tens.

So overall, I think going all-in is the best play here. Folding at some frequency is also an okay play.

Flop

Flop (39bb): J T 7 
Farrel bets all-in 55.5bb. Ho folds. Kempe folds. Farrel folds.

Farrel wins 39bb.

Flop Analysis

After heading 4-ways to the flop, Maria flops a set on the monotone board. She should be thrilled. But things get interesting when Farrel decides to overbet all-in with his nut flush draw.

However, Maria still should have an easy decision. Even facing an overbet, there isn’t much we can say here other than that Maria just has to call.

Sure, Maria can be almost dead sometimes versus a hand like J J. But that’s just a marginal part of Farrells range. His range consists of way more hands like all the QQ / KK / AA / AK / AQ with a heart.

If we run the hand with all of the above, we can clearly see that Maria has a SIGNIFICANT edge.

This is also not including hands like King-Queen with a heart!

The only time that this could conceivably become a fold is if there are extreme ICM implications as I have talked in previous articles.

But even if that was the case, then Maria should probably just fold preflop. ICM implications don’t really apply in this situation. The payout structure is pretty flat up until around 13th place, when they start to become more than 1 buy-in pay jumps.

All-in-all, Maria is bleeding money here by electing to fold her set.

Wrapping Up

In the wise words of Upswing Poker co-founder Doug Polk:

Sometimes it’s just your time to die in tournaments

This is a dream flop after cold calling preflop and it will significantly cost you money long term if you are folding sets on the flop versus an all-in.

Ready for more tournament poker analysis? Read $22 Becomes $100,061 in Unbelievably Huge Tournament (Hand Analysis).

What do you think of Maria’s fold? Let me know in the comments below.

Note: Want to level-up your No Limit Hold’em skills? Join the 6,000+ players currently upgrading their game when you join the Upswing Lab.

The Lab is Upswing Poker’s most popular course, and the elite Lab pros have been adding new content every week for the past 4 years. You get access to all of it when you join. Learn more now!

The post €1,115,207 On The Line…Should She Fold A SET? (Analysis) appeared first on Upswing Poker.

You put a decent amount of time into studying theory / analyzing hands. But you keep finding yourself asking the same question: When should I buy into a tournament? Should I always pre-register, register as late as possible, or something in between?

The world of online tournament poker can be pretty daunting these days. There are so many different tournament structures to get familiar with: Progressive Knockouts, Freezeouts, Turbos, Hyper-Turbos, etc.

Plus, almost all of sites allow late registration, in some cases to a comical degree (shout out to ACR). So not only do you have to worry about your strategy at the table, you also have to consider when to sit down at the table in the first place.

In this article we are going to cover:

1. What to Consider Before Registering Any Tournament
2. How Late is Too Late to Register
3. The Case for Late Registering Close to the Money
4. Advice from Upswing Coach Daniel McAulay

Let’s get started.

What to Consider Before Registering Any Tournament

These are some of the most important factors that you should think about when deciding when to register for a tournament.

Return on Investment (ROI)

The first thing you need to consider is your ROI.

The lower ROI you have, which is determined by your skill, the more buy-ins you should have in your bankroll and the earlier you should register.

The reason for this is because your edge over the field is largest over the field at the start of tournament. You want to register early to play as much time as possible when you have an edge.

Competition

Recreational players generally register earlier for tournaments than regulars. This means that by registering early, you generally get to play deeper-stacked poker against worse players, on average.

The later you register, the stronger the field is likely to be because many of the weaker players will have busted already. So, registering early allows you to play against softer competition, which is important if your ROI isn’t particularly high.

Related article: The Ultimate Guide for Dominating Weak Tournament Competition.

Variance

The later you register into a tournament, the lower the ROI you will have, which comes with higher variance. This means you’ll need a bigger bankroll cushion.

For example, a comfortable bankroll for $11 tournaments is $1,500 to $3,000. But if you were to register late with a short stack (20-30 big blinds) you should aim to have 2x or 3x that amount.

How Late is Too Late to Register

(Note: The following chart is bankroll management advice for players that are relying on a large portion of their income for poker. Recreational players with other streams of income can attempt more aggressive bankroll strategies as long as they are not playing out of their means.)

Late Registering Close to the Money

The table above is a great jumping off point, but there’s one more factor that might make you want to register a tournament as late as possible.

It has to do with ICM. Specifically, how close you are to the money bubble. Let’s consider an extreme example.

Suppose there’s an online tournament with 1,000 total players, 100 of which will make the money. The late registration period is seconds away from being over and just 140 players remain.

In this situation, late registering can have a lot of value. You’ll only have to outlast about 40 players to make the money, which likely amounts to a couple of orbits. Stealing the blinds once or twice, or doubling up once, might even be enough to get you there.

Your starting stack will likely be very short upon registering — as little as 5 big blinds depending on the site. So, the variance of late registering in this situation will be quite high and you will often bust short of the money.

But if you’re okay with the swings and good at playing with short stacks, give max late registering close to the money a try. At the very least, it’s a fun and exciting way to approach an online tournament.

Advice from Upswing Coach Daniel McAuley

The topic of late-registering was posed in the Upswing Engage Facebook Group and was answered by Upswing Coach Daniel McAuley. Check out his full answer on the topic:

Final Thoughts

If you are deciding to take the plunge into tournaments full-time, you should air on the side of caution. Bankroll management is a personal thing and depends on outside circumstances.

You also have to consider the variance that is encountered by late registering with shorter stacks. Hence why we have included a table of what a usual bankroll strategy would look like.

Want more fundamental tournament advice? Read 4 Valuable Pieces of Poker Tournament Advice.

The post Late Registering Online Tournaments: How Late Is Too Late? appeared first on Upswing Poker.

Upswing coach Daniel “Daniel” McAulay actually pulled off this impressive feat last year. After outlasting over 59,000 players (!!!) in the MicroMillions Main Event on PokerStars, his $22 buy-in had grown to over $100,000.

That’s over 5,000 buy-ins!

In this article, we are going to have an analytical look at 4 hands that Daniel played at the Final Table, ranging from 9-handed all the way to heads-up.

Most of these pots are fairly small, but playing well in small pots is crucial in tournaments. Doing so allows you to maintain and build your stack in between the big pots.

(Note: Daniel reviewed the entire MicroMillions final table for a Play & Explain series in the Upswing Lab training course. If you want to take your tournament skills to the next level, join the Upswing Lab and check out that video series today. Learn more now!)

Payouts

Before jumping into the action, let’s take a look at the payouts for the Final Table.

1st Place – $100,061
2nd Place – $72,605
3rd Place – $52,690
4th Place – $38,237
5th Place – $27,748
6th Place – $20,137
7th Place – $16,613
8th Place – $10,605
9th Place – $7,696

With massive pay jumps like this, every hand is extremely important. Let’s dive into the first hand.

Hand #1: 9-handed

We start with our first hand which takes place at the 9-handed final table. Our hero (Daniel) has the third biggest chip stack with 40 big blinds. The rest of the stacks are:

UTG: 24bb
UTG+1: 84bb
UTG+2: 54bb
Lojack: 5.7bb
Hijack: 23bb
Cutoff: 40bb (Daniel)
Button: 10bb
Small Blind: 33bb
Big Blind: 22bb

Now, let’s dive into the hand.

Preflop: Daniel is dealt A T in the Cutoff.
Daniel raises 2bb. Big Blind calls with K 8.

Flop (5.4bb): J 2 3
Daniel bets 1.34bb. Big Blind folds.

Daniel wins 6.74bb.

Preflop Analysis

A T is a standard raise from the Cutoff and K 8 is a standard call from the Big Blind. Well played by both players.

Flop Analysis

On this board, Daniel only needs to bet small due to the amount of folds that the big blind is going to have. A big blind defend range is going to have a lot of hands that are just going to have to automatically fold versus a continuation bet (like 67/89/K5/Q6/etc). Forcing a fold from these type of hands, which have 35-40% equity versus A T, is never a bad thing.

The Big Blind could consider calling on this flop under normal tournament conditions. However, with such huge pay jumps looming and a couple very short stacks at the table, stack preservation becomes very important when you have a medium stack like the Big Blinds. He makes a good fold.

This is a somewhat trivial spot, but playing well in these common situations is crucial. Daniel won a bunch of small pots like this when there were between 9 and 7 players remaining, which put him in a super favorable position when the players reached short-handed play.

Hand #2: 6-handed

Stack sizes:

Lojack: 51bb (Daniel)
Hijack: 22bb
Cutoff: 9.9bb
Button: 60bb
Small Blind: 19bb
Big Blind: 30bb

Hand:

Preflop: Daniel is dealt 8 8 from Lojack.
Daniel raises 2bb. Button 3-bets 6bb with 8 8. Daniel calls.

Flop (14.1bb): 6 2 9
Daniel checks. Button checks.

Turn (14.1bb): A
Daniel checks. Button bets 4bb. Daniel calls.

River (22.1bb): K
Daniel checks. Button checks.

Daniel and Button chop 22.1bb.

Preflop Analysis

This is an interesting 3-bet from the Button — the chip leader — against Daniel, who is the second biggest stack at the table. To quote Daniel:

This is exactly what we didn’t want to see. We don’t want to play 3-bet pots versus the chip leader, here, but this hand is just gonna be a call.

But I’m going to proceed very cautiously. I don’t even think I’d have a 4-bet range here.

Calling with 88 on the Button would be standard in most situations, but as Daniel alluded to, this 3-bet will command a ton of respect considering it’s a clash between the two biggest stacks at the table. Perhaps that’s why the Button decided to take the aggressive option with his medium pair.

Flop Analysis

Daniel checks, as he should with his entire range, and the Button checks back. 

Daniel was surprised to see his opponent check back, especially after seeing he had 88. The Button should bet with most of his hands on this flop. 88, in particular, benefits greatly from denying equity versus overcard hands that Daniel will fold versus a bet on the flop.

If faced with a bet, Daniel would want to fold a lot of hands in his range. However, 88 would have been strong enough to make the call considering there was only one overcard on the flop.

Turn and River Analysis

Daniel stated that if the Button had either used a bigger size on the turn or followed through with a bet the river, then he would have folded. This is because Daniel has many better hands within his range that would play this way, therefore his range is protected. But because of the pot odds he was given versus the relatively small turn bet, a call is fine.

Hand #3: 4-handed

Stack sizes:

Cutoff: 42bb
Button: 66bb
Small Blind: 28bb
Big Blind: 62bb (Hero)

Hand:

Preflop: Daniel is dealt 6 4 in the Big Blind.
Small Blind limps Q 9. Daniel checks.

Flop (2.4bb): K 7 3
Small Blind bets 1bb. Daniel raises to 2.6bb. Small Blind folds.

Daniel wins 6bb.

Preflop Analysis

Faced with a limp, Dan can’t go wrong with either option in the Big Blind. He can either check and take a free flop or raise in an attempt to steal the pot preflop. He opts for the former.

Flop Analysis

This is a bad hand for the Small Blind to bet on the flop. This bet will only make worse hands fold, while all better hands will call.

Daniel says that he would be floating with all his Ace-highs and every single pair. This bet also gives the Big Blind the opportunity to bluff-raise with hands such as the one Hero has.

64o is a pure raise in terms of chip EV, but if you throw ICM considerations into the mix as well it makes the raise even better. This is because Daniel’s opponent will have to over-fold in this spot to preserve his stack. Overall, another well played hand from Daniel.

Hand #4: Heads-Up

Stack sizes:

Small Blind 53bb (Hero)
Big Blind 12bb

Hand:

Preflop: Daniel is dealt A 8 in the Small Blind.
Daniel limps. Big Blind raises all-in 12 big blinds with K 7. Daniel calls.

Flop: J 9 4

Turn: 8

River: Q

Daniel wins 24bb and the tournament.

Preflop Analysis

This final hand is how and where Dan sealed his victory. After being very aggressive on the final table with lots of open-raises and 3-betting, Daniel went for a cagey trap-limp with A 8.

Limp-trapping these types of hands can be a good idea, especially if you have an aggressive table image. This is because your opponents in the hand might perceive your limp as being weak, when in fact it is actually quite a strong hand for being 12 big blinds effective.

This works out perfectly as our opponent decides to jam his remaining 12bb stack in the middle with K 7 and the board runs out clean 9 J 4 8 Q and Daniel ships the MicroMillions main event trophy and all the prestige that goes with it!

(It’s worth noting that if Daniel shoved, there’s a good chance the Big Blind calls with K7o anyway.)

Wrapping Up

I hope you enjoyed this quick recap of Daniel’s win. If you have any questions or feedback, drop a comment below.

Want to learn more about final table strategy? Read How ICM Should Impact Your Strategy At Final Tables.

Good luck at the tables.

Note: Learn step-by-step how to become the best player at the table when you join the Upswing Lab training course. Elite pros have been adding new content every week for the past four years, and you get all of it when you join. Learn more now!

The post $22 Becomes $100,061 in Unbelievably Huge Tournament (Hand Analysis) appeared first on Upswing Poker.

One of the most ambitious WSOP final table plays of all time (video).

Because of the drastic pay jumps at final tables, your decisions in these spots will greatly impact your ROI.

One of the most important factors to consider at a final table is ICM, which stands for Independent Chip Model. If you want to learn how ICM should impact your play in the final stages of a tournament, then this article is for you.

In this article we are going to cover:

1. What is ICM?
2. chipEV vs $EV
3. How ICM Should Impact Your Play at Final Tables with Different Stack Sizes
4. Example #1: How ICM Affects Open-Shoving Ranges
5. Example #2: How ICM Affects Calling Ranges vs Shoves

Let’s dive in.

What is ICM?

ICM is used to determine how much a chip stack is worth in real dollars. Unlike in cash games, where chips correspond 1-to-1 to their dollar value, the formula for translating chips to dollars in tournaments is quite complex. In fact, software is required for precise ICM calculations.

ICM can be used at any stage in the tournament to determine whether to push / fold / call, but it is largely used at final tables due to the big pay jumps that come in the final stages of the tournament.

How is ICM Calculated?

ICM is calculated by using the stack sizes of everybody at a final table and then comparing them to the remaining prize pool. This works out to a real dollar value of how much each stack is worth.

This math can be quite complicated and it is very rare somebody would be able to work it out on the fly at the table. This is why studying with programs that can calculate ICM for you (ICMizer) outside of the game is essential.

Note: Learn step-by-step how to become the best player at the table when you join the Upswing Lab training course. Elite pros have been adding new content every week for the past four years, and you get all of it when you join. Learn more now!

chipEV vs $EV

You should be familiar with these two key terms before moving on.

chipEV

ChipEV is short for expected value in chips. ChipEV refers to the net amount of tournament chips that a particular play profits or loses in the long run. The output of a chipEV calculation is in big blinds.

$EV

$EV is short for expected value in real dollars. $EV refers to the net amount of dollars that a particular play profits or loses in the long run. The output of a $EV calculation is in dollars, Euros, or whatever other currency you’re playing for.

In tournaments, and particularly at final tables, certain plays can be +chipEV while also being -$EV. In other words, the play will win chips, but lose dollars in the long run. Such plays should be avoided because winning real money — not temporary chips — is your goal as a tournament player.

How ICM Should Impact Your Play at Final Tables with Different Stack Sizes

There are 3 types of positions you are going to be in, in relation to your stack:

The Big Stack

As the big stack, you can use all of those sweet chips to bully shorter-stacked players who are just trying to survive. You can also leverage your chip position against good players who are forced to play tighter due to ICM considerations.

When you’re fortunate enough to be in this position, you can widen your opening, 3-betting, and shoving ranges to force middling stacks to fold their bottom/bottom-middle parts of their ranges.

The Medium Stack

Being the middle stack sucks. Even though Upswing generally advocates playing aggressively at final tables, you don’t have much of a choice as a middling stack.

With a middling stack, it is disastrous for you to bust before the short stacks bust. That would mean you miss out on a pay jump (or two or three), so you are forced to play super tight and straight forward.

Medium stacks have the most to lose at final tables. If they are currently 4th/9 or 5th/9 and bust before the short stacks, this equates to a lot of real dollars being lost.

The Short Stack

As the short stack, you face the least amount of ICM pressure because you have the least to lose. You are essentially expected to bust soon, so you get to play fairly aggressively to try to run up your stack.

When you’re in this position, you can pretty much shove with all +chipEV hands, barring a few ‘marginal hands’ in some spots.

Example #1: How ICM Affects Open-Shoving Ranges

Let’s compare two 15 big blind (bb) shoving ranges from middle position. One is a pure chipEV calculation with no ICM conditions, the other is a $EV calculation with ICM conditions at a typical Sunday Million final table.

As you can see from these ICMizer screen grabs, the 15bb shoving range for middle position is quite a bit tighter when ICM conditions are introduced. For example, A8/A7/A5 are quite profitable shoving hands in chipEV, but they actually lose money in the ICM calculation.

There are a lot of variables when it comes to ICM calculations and it is basically impossible to work it out at the tables. Putting in work off the felt with programs such as ICMizer will help you get a feel for how you should adjust, which will allow you to take your final table game to the next level!

Example #2: How ICM Affects Calling Ranges vs Shoves

When it comes to calling versus shoves, you have to tighten up dramatically when big money is on the line.

Let’s compare two 15bb calling ranges from the big blind versus a hijack shove. Again, one is a pure chipEV calculation and the other is a $EV calculation with ICM conditions at a typical Sunday Million final table.

As you can see, you should generally be calling tighter and folding more marginal hands when ICM conditions are introduced. A couple of hands that stand out:

• Calling 44 with no ICM implications = +0.90bb (absolutely crushing)
• Calling 44 with ICM implications = -$77.80 (absolutely punting)
• Calling KTs with no ICM implications = +0.35bb (a fairly profitable call)
• Calling KTs with ICM implications = -$123 (massive spew)

Final Thoughts

I hope this article will help you cruise to victory at your next final table!

Want to learn how to build big stacks right before the final table? Read How to Make Big Money on the Final Table Bubble.

If you have any questions feel free to leave a comment in the section below. I will answer them as soon as possible!

Note: Ready to join 6,000+ players currently upgrading their No Limit Hold’em skills? Crush your competition with the expert strategies you will learn inside the Upswing Lab training course. Learn more now!

The post How ICM Should Impact Your Play at Final Tables appeared first on Upswing Poker.

Your stack gets short and your preflop options are reduced to two: push all-in or fold.

Playing optimally in these push-or-fold situations is one thing that separates tournament crushers from average joes.

In this article, we’ll cover:

1. What is Push/Fold Strategy?
2. ICMIZER and Chip EV Explained
   
3. 10bb Push/Fold Charts
   
4. 15bb Push/Fold Charts
5. Conclusion

Let’s dive in.

What is Push/Fold Strategy?

Push/Fold is a common strategy used in tournaments in which you either go all-in preflop or fold. Push/fold should be utilized when your stack becomes short — around 15 big blinds (bb) or fewer.

There are a ton of different push/fold charts available, but we will be using the program that those charts get their data from — ICMIZER. Bare in mind that the charts in this article are not the be-all end-all when it comes to push/fold poker.

In fact, the optimal push/fold range can change depending on a number of factors, including but not limited to:

• Stack sizes behind.
• Ante size.
  
• The structure the tournament.*
• ICM conditions.

*E.g. 10bb in the $11 buy-in Sunday Storm is different than 10bb in the $10,000 buy-in World Series of Poker Main Event.

ICMIZER and Chip EV Explained

The program used to generate these ranges (ICMIZER) measures the expected value in chips (chip EV or simply cEV) of each hand if played as a push. Chip EV is measured in big blinds.

If the hand you are looking to push is above +0.2cEV, then it’s a slam dunk situation to go all-in. To put this in perspective, winning at +0.20cEV every hand would mean you are winning 20bb per 100 hands over the long term. That’s an incredible win-rate and is simply too great to pass up.

10bb Push/Fold Charts

We will go over push/fold ranges for the following positions at a 9-handed table:

• Under the Gun (UTG) and UTG+1
  
• UTG+2 and Lojack
• Hijack
• Cutoff and Button
• Small Blind

Note: UTG/UTG+1, Middle Position/Lojack, and Cutoff/Button are grouped together because the push/fold ranges are virtually identical for these position pairings.

UTG and UTG+1 (10bb)

Bright Green = Very Profitable All-In | Light Green = Profitable All-In | Red = Losing All-In

As you can see from these results, the *slam dunk* all-in hands are highlighted in bright green as they are above +0.2cEV. The hands highlighted in light green have a positive expectation if played as a push, but the profit is small enough that doing so may not be worth risking your stack in some situations.

UTG+2 and Lojack (10bb)

Bright Green = Very Profitable All-In | Light Green = Profitable All-In | Red = Losing All-In

Hijack (10bb)

Bright Green = Very Profitable All-In | Light Green = Profitable All-In | Red = Losing All-In

Button and Cutoff (10bb)

Bright Green = Very Profitable All-In | Light Green = Profitable All-In | Red = Losing All-In

Small Blind (10bb)

Bright Green = Very Profitable All-In | Light Green = Profitable All-In | Red = Losing All-In

As you can see from the screen grabs from ICMIZER, the further around the table you go, the wider of a range you can profitably push all-in.

The main reasoning behind this without going into too much math is the fact that there are less players you are ‘pushing’ into. If you only need to push your 10bb stack through 2 players as opposed to 7, then you are more than likely going to get it through with little resistance.

We generally need a stronger range pushing from Under the Gun due to the fact that if someone does call you, they are generally going to have a stronger range due to you also having a tighter / stronger range.

15bb Push/Fold Charts

Same positions as last time:

• Under the Gun (UTG) and UTG+1
  
• UTG+2 and Lojack
• Hijack
• Cutoff and Button
• Small Blind

UTG & UTG+1 (15bb)

Bright Green = Very Profitable All-In | Light Green = Profitable All-In | Red = Losing All-In

UTG+2 and Lojack (15bb)

Bright Green = Very Profitable All-In | Light Green = Profitable All-In | Red = Losing All-In

Hijack (15bb)

Bright Green = Very Profitable All-In | Light Green = Profitable All-In | Red = Losing All-In

Button & Cutoff (15bb)

Bright Green = Very Profitable All-In | Light Green = Profitable All-In | Red = Losing All-In

Small Blind (15bb)

Bright Green = Very Profitable All-In | Light Green = Profitable All-In | Red = Losing All-In

You may have noticed there are significant differences in EV when pushing all-in with 15bb as opposed to 10bb. For simplicity’s sake, you should still only be using Push / Fold when you are slightly deeper (up until around 20bb+) until you are more comfortable with your postflop game (which the UpswingLab will definitely help you develop!).

Once stack sizes generally become larger than 20bb there are definitely more +EV lines you can take by just Raising First In.

2 Observations from the Push Fold Charts Above

1. Be wary of jamming your weak off-suit aces. While they may seem like profitable hands to push at any stack depth under 15bb, they are not.

This is a major leak for newer players. As seen in the charts above, weak aces are losing pushes from UTG and middle position, even with 10bb stacks. This is because they are often dominated and thus do not perform well when the push is called.

That is why a hand like J T is a WAY better all-in hand than, say, A 3. Jack-Ten suited is flipping vs almost all Ace-x hands and all pairs below 99, and it has some equity vs AK and QQ+.

But don’t just take my word for it. As you can see from the equities below, JTs has almost 40% equity vs a pretty strong range:

Versus the same range, A3o has a quarter less equity:

2. Your chip EV is higher versus players who call too tight versus all-ins.

The best way to show this is with a small blind vs big blind example. If you push with as wide of a range as you should from the small blind, but the big blind isn’t calling as much as he should, you actually win way more chipEV than usual.

Check out the big blind’s equilibrium calling range versus a 10bb all-in from the small blind:

Bright Green = Very Profitable Call | Light Green = Profitable Call | Red = Losing Call

As you can see from this range, the big blind is “supposed” to call very wide.

In practice, however, many players are not calling with marginal hands like Q2s or J9o, especially at low stakes. If your opponent is folding hands like these, your marginal hands will win way more chips by going all-in than ICMIZER initially calculated.

Final Thoughts

Remember to push all-in with a relatively tight range when you are in earlier positions around the table, and wider your range the closer you get to the button/small blind.

By the way, we are having a handy PDF made with all of the push/fold charts from this article. Check back mid-next week to download it.

Ready for more tournament knowledge? Check out 3 Key Hands from a Sunday Million Final Table.

The post Push Fold Strategy in Poker Tournaments: Beginner’s Guide with Charts! appeared first on Upswing Poker.